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Posts Tagged ‘PIGS’

Time to panic, indeed

July 8th, 2011 TFS No comments

On my daily feed round I came across this, from The Atlantic: Time to panic about federal debt limit.

It starts comparing american economy to an airplane with engine problems

just barely maintaining altitude above the tree line. Although the plane is holding its own, if almost anything else goes wrong, it will crash.

And then ends with demands of more “stimulus”. Well, american economy (and we should include most of european contries, specially greek, portuguese and, oh yeah, spanish) are like an airplane… not with engine, but with FUEL problems.

Flying in circles only does one thing: it keeps spending fuel. Being aware that fuel quantity is always limited (btw, are not the same people warning us about peak oil?), the pilots should stop wandering and start looking for a piece of land to bring the plane down and get everyone (The People) out the plane safely.

If pilots keep rounding and rounding, demanding increase the debt ceiling (aka asking for a refill), the only thing that could will happen will be that the plane WILL spend all the fuel, and it will crash, and there will be casualties.

No more stimulus, no more bailouts, no more bullshit.

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The future of the European Union

March 26th, 2010 TFS No comments

Greece, the craddle of western civilisation, at last is saved. This is not like in the movie, but for real. The European Union decided to rescue Greece from total failure and becoming another bankrupt state, as indeed became Iceland not so far in time.

Finally, Germany and France achieved their first objective: not to pay for ransoms and bailouts. But at what price? Having the International Monetary Fund inside the kitchen, telling what to do and, eventually, having some extra devaluation.

And this is ‘good news’, may be not as good as expected, for Spain. Did anyone wondered why Mr. Zapatero was talking about ‘solidarity’ between member states? Did it was because Spain holds the semestral presidency? Or did it was because he is preparing the field, as The ‘S’ goes behind the ‘G’ in PIGS?

The socialist president of Spain is hardening and preparing for what it can be the worst time in Spain for years. Let me draw the picture:
He and his ministers are repeating ad nauseam that the country has left the crisis behind (and if it don’t, it will, very soon).
On the other hand, we have a bunch of people (more than 4 milion) which lost their jobs, in a somewhat sustained rate between january and july in 2008, but with a significant boom starting in the second semester of the year, which slightly ended in july 2009 (as Spain is a tourist-living country)… but then started going up again and it is not appearing to stop.
Almost 80% of those 4 milion people applied for, and were granted, unemployement subsidies.

The most of these subsidies where granted between the end of 2008 and july 2009, and they last one year and a half. As summertime jobs will ease the thing a bit, this brings us to next september, when unemployement subsidies will start to finish, and people will starting to get without any sort of income whatsoever.

There are programmes to ease self-employement of course… but the most of them are subsidiers to franchise owners to sell their products to people who does not have 15000€ to 30000€ to buy it. And for the small and middle companies, the state behaves as a leech, sucking them to the bones and forcing them to go inoperant or worse: close and throw more people to the unemployement office.

But the picture is even worse, as thanks to the government baby cheques of 2500€+3600€ per baby, spanish natality rate peaked into the highest since 1990 (surprisingly 2 years before the last crisis…) and now it is normal that at least one parent is unemployed and taking care of one or two childs.

But the picture can get ever worse! Thanks to these months of ease and the thought of overcoming the crisis, real estate and housing prices experienced a slight recovery, and started to rise up again. Banks started to grant mortgages, and many people whom were waiting to buy, took the decision and stepped up to what they hope to be great bargains.

So, to resume, it can be that next autum, 4 milion people and their 3 year old childs find themselves without any sort, kind or way to get input money at all, unable to pay their loans and mortgages.

Usually, families rely on parents or near relatives, but this will not help then, because it is helping now and parents in their 50′s and 60′s are starting to give their savings to their sons and grandsons in order to help them pay the rent and get their food.

Spain is now in the calm before the storm. And it will be a huge storm, as things can get extremely nasty. With the state’s vaults empty thanks to ‘progressive bailouts’ of banks and construction scammers, blank cheques and so, you may get a look at Argentina and its ‘corralito’ back in 2001. This could be a very real picture for the next christmas in Spain.

What the EU will do then? What will the IMF will do? What Germany, France or the craddle of western civilisation (Greece) will do? Will they be wanting to bail out a failed and bankrupt state, full of very angry people? Or will they leave the rescue to Russia, or China? Will the EU and its currency resist?

2009 was a great punch in the nose, but 2010 could be a complete KO. Now it is time to dig a trench, as deep as anyone can, get covered in there, and look to the horizon, waiting one of the worst hurricanes to pass.
What can it take on its way? No one knows. It could be the ‘world’s economic system’ or lots of people’s savings, but it can easily bring the failure of democratic ‘nation-state’. It can experience a great setback and, who knows, even dissapear.

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The eye of the beholder

March 15th, 2010 TFS No comments

My last post was the closing of a personal cycle which started, unknowingly to me then, that very day six years ago. I was reviewing some of my old notes and posts, from my former blog, and found very interesting things I wrote. Some of them, specially the latter, were about the different points of view all over the world and the relationship with the jolly Obama Mania which took the world one year and some months ago.

As a spanish passport holder born in Europe, with a hard latin influence (and I mean latin for Rome, but that will be another post), I work and function on some strong structures about some things, which collide directly with some anglo views. For example, the use of a 3000 year old technology as if it were a XXI century discovery by an art college graduatedor the 2008′s ‘discovery’ about ‘irregular shaped vegetables’, and that those vegetables are edible.

Some years ago, those anglo discoveries used to freaked me out of my mind, as they were granted concepts for me: iberians, etruscans, greeks, romans and their descendants were planting ‘irregular’ vegetables and using terracotta bowls to fresh and conserve them during the last 3000 years.
Now, those ‘discovered things’ stopped to amaze me. I think it’s a matter of needs. If you don’t need to fresh and conserve your food, you do not invent terracotta bowls. And the same applies to stone age tribes living in papua nowadays or the Masai. They did not needed even the wheel, so be it.

That explains things as the anglosphere looking more to east and Asia, knowing more about the political situation there, than into South America. But the curious thing is that Europe buys all products the anglo-american shop sells, from lousy counter-terrorism measures to the ‘messianic’ new US president.

Back in 2008, all Europe supported US candidate Barak Obama. And sometimes in a really freaky selfish way. Even Mr. Zapatero’s right hand, Pepe Blanco (now minister of infrastructure), in Spain wrote on his blog that he would not post anything about american elections in order to not interfere in favour of Obama. No further comments.

When Mr. Obama became President elect, all europe and most of the world, celebrated. Those celebrations included the full streaming of acceptance speech on TV and the call from the Euro Parliament on the Member States to be prepared to accept Guantánamo inmates in the EU in case the US asks so. And Spain accepted. As in the movies, where the neighbours bring cakes to the newcomers.

After that we saw some more pathetic episodes starred by spanish government members, in order to gain the favour of the Potus. But what those so called politicians did not were aware of, is that the Potus will do what is best for its country. President Obama will work for the US, not for Europe, China or Zimbabwe. He does not care about what happens in those places, at least as much it does not affect US interests, and then he will do what he (or his team) think is best for them the US.

Instead of this, of helping its citizens getting out from the financial breakdown, spanish government seems more interested in appearing in the pictures with the new naked emperor. Instead of working for their own interests, they want to like the new Potus, forgetting about who feeds them. And then the first slap came out, with Mr. Obama cancelling his visit to Europe. And Europe felt snubbed. Obamity or serendipity?

As I said earlier, all is on the eye of the beholder. And for now we can behold the recent riots in Greece, but somehow all the world forgot those late 2008 events. Those riots two years ago were provoked by the sons of the great greek political leaders in the 80s. 21st Century socialist feudal lords talking about opportunities in a broke country. Two years later, George Papandreou, now PM, stated that the EU must pay its guilt for the greek fail, and, guess what, he took the case in front of Emperor Obama waiting for him to intercede.

Unrest is growing up fast, and from the plain citizen position, the “behold” is that they have to pay for everything, including the bailout of their own country and even for countries placed well far behind their sight. European northern countries are disturbed? Well, just look at Greece. And as in ‘PIGS’, the S goes behind the G.

These weeks, a somewhat viral-yes-we-can campaign striked hard in Spain: estosololoarreglamosentretodos.org (that would be togetherwecanstraightenthingsout.org). Developed by a near-government marketing firm and paid by spanish top companies and banks, the costs of this ‘yes we can’ style are estimated in 4 milion euros.
People started to join against it. And this is the normal thing to happen with 23% of the population (and summing up fast) lost their job, banks are not letting a single cent, real estate and housing prices are starting to rise again and the socialist government of Mr. Zapatero is worried guessing why Obama cancelled his visit and while stating that he “thinks that the country is out of the crisis….or at least it will not take long…”, bailing out the same construction sector which took the country to its knees a year and a half after bailing out the entire bank system, passing a 2 points rise in VAT for the summer and planning to enlarge retirement age two years.

Obama and its “Yes we can!” campaign, as the eco-cooler or the perfect-shaped turnip, works perfect… back in the US, but it will be not valid here at Spain. It can not be understood. And giving away 4 million euros to your friends can give you a generous image, except when that money comes from public tax money. Then you become a thief. Anyway, I do not think there will be riots, but only because people here are so lazy and only does that when they are forbidden to drink in public spaces.

What I can say is, if someone has any money in spanish banks, get it out as soon as possible. Things will get tough.

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Living with a pig

March 2nd, 2010 TFS No comments

As well as you know, the PIGS that used to fly, now are in the process of landing. Better said, they are emergency landing, without lights, instruments, almost no wings and, in some cases, even without a pilot.

When you live in a country as the Pigs’ “S”, you can feel the experience of being robbed legally almost for every official act you make, and by a multiple gang. The last example is just from a couple of hours ago.

If you want to work by yourself, then you have to ask for permission, and pay for it. Just for the paperwork set up, a cheap accountant will ask for about €100-150. Then you have to pay the state some more €250 monthly for the activity license. Then, when it comes the time to get paid, one has to charge 16% VAT, and declare that VAT every three months.
And all this is just for working at home with minimum expenses.

Now imagine that you get into a bad strike. Then you have to pay again €100-€150 to cease activity.
And the thing grows up if you were “brave” enough to create your own Ltd. company: if you have to close it, you can pay up to 50% the cost of setting up the Ltd: €1500 (the minimum for a spanish Ltd company)

After experiencing that in my own skin, and after the bank bail out in late 2008, and after the government’s anouncing of a general VAT raise… one can only be extremely amazed to hear finance ministry people complaining about the lack of solidarity of those in the “black economy”, being that a 23,3% of GDP in 2009.

Although I’m not on tax evasion, I can just smile, propose a toast for those 23,3% and go back to my own business building my escape route.
Meanwhile the country with no pilot wastes huge piles of tax money in travels to Europe for the finance minister (and her court) to tell everyone that “everything’s cool mates”, expresses its solidarity with Greece, asks the rest of the EU to pay for the rescue… and hopes that in short someone will do the same for it.
And that not to mention the greatest ‘underground’ “yes, we can” campaign that will end all the trouble: togetherwecanstraightenthingsout.org.
Obviously I won’t give a link, but I promise to talk about this robbery.

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